As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu marks his third year in office, a clear-eyed assessment of Nigeria’s economic transformation reveals extraordinary gains, persistent hardship, and a nation at a crossroads.
Introduction
On May 29, 2026, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu addressed Nigerians in a nationwide broadcast to mark the third anniversary of his administration. His message was characteristically bold: Nigeria had stared into the abyss of fiscal collapse and pulled back from the edge. The reforms — painful, controversial, and politically costly — had been necessary. And the country, he insisted, was now on a path of genuine recovery.
Whether one accepts that framing in full, in part, or with scepticism, the numbers that frame his third year in office are, by any objective standard, striking. The All Share Index of the Nigerian Stock Exchange has risen from 53,000 points in May 2023 to 250,000 points in May 2026. Market capitalisation has surged from N30 trillion to N160 trillion. External reserves have climbed from a net $3.99 billion to approximately $50 billion. The fiscal deficit has been more than halved, from 5.4% to 3.0% of GDP. These are not minor adjustments; they represent structural shifts in Nigeria’s macroeconomic architecture.
Yet the story of these three years cannot be told in macroeconomic indices alone. For millions of Nigerians, the lived experience of this reform period has been defined by soaring food prices, escalating costs of living, and a persistent sense that the dividends of reform have not yet reached the household. The political challenge before the Tinubu administration, with approximately one year remaining before the 2027 election cycle begins, is to close the distance between the macro success and the micro reality.
The Boldest Moves: Subsidy Removal and FX Unification
No two decisions defined the early Tinubu presidency more than the removal of the petrol subsidy on his inauguration day and the subsequent unification of Nigeria’s fragmented foreign exchange windows. Both decisions triggered immediate and severe pain — fuel prices spiked, the naira fell sharply, and inflation accelerated to historically high levels. But both decisions also addressed distortions that had cost Nigeria trillions of naira annually. Analysts estimate that ending the fuel subsidy saved the government between N4 trillion and N6 trillion annually. FAAC allocations to states grew from N629 billion in March 2023 to N2.036 trillion in March 2026 — a direct fiscal benefit of the unification policy.
GDP Growth: Momentum Building
Nigeria’s real GDP growth rate has followed a steady upward trajectory under the Tinubu administration. Growth averaged approximately 3.19% through 2024, strengthening to 3.85% in 2025 — the strongest annual performance in the review period. In Q1 2026, GDP growth remained positive at 3.89%. The World Bank has projected 4.2% growth for the full year 2026. While these figures remain below the 7–8% rates required to meaningfully reduce poverty in Africa’s most populous nation, the direction of travel is positive and internationally recognised.
Tax Reform and Fiscal Architecture
The administration’s tax reform agenda has emerged as one of the most ambitious fiscal overhauls in Nigeria’s recent history. The restructuring of revenue collection mechanisms, broadening of the tax base, and renegotiation of revenue-sharing frameworks have contributed to improved government finances at the federal and state levels. These reforms, still in progress, are expected to reduce Nigeria’s chronic dependence on oil revenues and build a more diversified, resilient fiscal base.
The Unfinished Business: Power and Poverty
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Despite the macroeconomic gains, two areas represent the most urgent and visible unfinished business of the Tinubu administration. Nigeria’s electricity sector remains chronically underperforming despite a ₦3.3 trillion debt clearance plan and over $2 billion in new energy investments. The cost of living crisis, while moderating from its peak, remains the central political vulnerability of the presidency. Ratings from ordinary Nigerians reflect this ambivalence: those who support the reforms acknowledge their structural logic; those who oppose them point to empty food stores and generator fuel costs that have become a second household tax.
The Road to 2027
With the 2027 general elections approaching, the Tinubu administration faces the defining challenge of democratic governance: translating macroeconomic progress into tangible improvements in daily life before voters render their verdict. The NLNG Train 7 project — a $5 billion investment nearing completion — promises significant export earnings. The 2,700 kilometres of highways and roads under construction or rehabilitation could unlock economic activity across underserved regions.
