As Tanzanians head to the polls on Wednesday, many observers say the exercise feels less like a competitive election and more like a coronation for President Samia Suluhu Hassan, the country’s first female head of state.
With no major opposition contenders cleared to run, the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party looks set to extend its 63-year grip on power, handing President Samia her first personal mandate since taking office in 2021.
The 65-year-old leader assumed power following the sudden death of former President John Magufuli. Her ascension was hailed as a historic milestone for women in African politics and a chance to reorient Tanzania’s domestic and international relations.
At the time, Samia was celebrated for her softer, conciliatory style that contrasted sharply with Magufuli’s combative and authoritarian approach. She launched her four Rs agenda, which are reconciliation, resilience, reform and rebuilding to restore diplomatic and economic ties with the global community.
Her policies reopened doors to foreign investors and development partners, including the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF), who had grown wary of Tanzania’s previous hardline stance.
“She made a difference. The lost relationship between Tanzania and international organisations such as the World Bank was restored,” political analyst Mohammed Issa told The Africa Standard.
However, that optimism has since faded. Over the past two years, Tanzania’s political environment has tightened, with human rights groups reporting increased repression, abductions, and intimidation of opposition figures.
Critics say the president’s early promises of reconciliation have been replaced by a hardline stance designed to consolidate power ahead of the election.
“Samia came in with a conciliatory tone, but now she makes tough decisions that many did not expect from her,” said Mr Issa. “She is now widely blamed for abductions, killings, repression of opposition, and other security-related issues.”
Freedom House, a Washington-based rights organisation, downgraded Tanzania’s status from “partly free” in 2020 to “not free” last year, citing shrinking civic space and deteriorating political freedoms.
The government has declined to comment on these allegations.
While 17 presidential candidates have been cleared by the electoral commission, the absence of major opposition parties has rendered the race largely symbolic.
The main opposition party, Chadema, has been disqualified after its leader, Tundu Lissu, was arrested in April on treason charges. Lissu, a vocal critic of the government, had been pushing for sweeping electoral reforms before his arrest.
Chadema has since called on its supporters to boycott the polls, branding the process a “charade.” Its deputy leader, John Heche, was also detained last week after publicly accusing the government of using cosmetic reforms to mask repression.
“Yes, rallies were allowed again,” Heche told The Africa Standard shortly before his arrest. “But Chadema can no longer carry out its mandate because the promises were fake.”
The second-largest opposition party, ACT Wazalendo, has also been weakened after its presidential candidate, Luhana Mpina, was disqualified twice. The High Court had reinstated his candidacy, but the electoral commission later upheld his exclusion following an appeal by the Attorney General.
This leaves minor parties such as Chaumma and CUF in the race, though analysts say none stand a realistic chance against CCM’s well-funded and entrenched political machine.
“The ruling party’s control, exclusion of opposition and institutional bias undermine electoral credibility,” said political expert Nicodemus Minde in a report for the Institute for Security Studies. “Limited civic space and low voter engagement further weaken inclusiveness.”
Among many Tanzanians, there is growing apathy. “We do not have an election without a strong opposition,” said Godfrey Lusana, a resident of Dar es Salaam. “We already know who will win. I cannot waste my time to vote.”
The situation is markedly different in Zanzibar, President Samia’s home region, where campaigns have been more vibrant. The semi-autonomous islands are holding their own regional elections, with incumbent CCM candidate Hussein Mwinyi facing a strong challenge from ACT Wazalendo’s Othman Masoud.
On the mainland, President Samia has focused her campaign on economic growth, infrastructure expansion, and social welfare, themes that continue to resonate with the electorate.
Her supporters have embraced her “Mama Samia” image, a maternal figure promising development through dialogue and unity.
At her rallies, she has pledged to improve health facilities, education, and transport infrastructure, positioning herself as a champion of stability and progress.
Political analysts say her overwhelming control over state institutions and the absence of major rivals virtually guarantee her victory.
For many voters, the upcoming ballot is therefore not a test of popularity but a confirmation of continuity in Tanzania’s political order.
As one analyst put it, “This is not an election in the traditional sense. It is a formal affirmation of power, a coronation dressed as a contest.”
